Odds increase to 70% for development of potential tropical system in Gulf

First named storm of Atlantic season will be called Alex

Formation chance increases from 30% to 40% over the next two days (Copyright 2022 by WKMG ClickOrlando - All rights reserved.)

ORLANDO, Fla. – A large and complex area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Gulf of Mexico now has a better than even chance to develop into a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning that the system has a 40% chance of tropical development over the next two days and a 70% chance over the next five days. The chances of development have improved since early Monday, although it’s still unclear if a tropical depression -- or a named storm -- will form.

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The system is partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific.

Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, the system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeast over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys by the end of the week.

The first named storm of the Atlantic season will be called Alex.

Hurricane season officially begins Wednesday and runs until Dec. 1.

The News 6 weather team will host a hurricane special at 7 p.m. Wednesday, with an Insider-only after-hours livestream afterward.


About the Authors:

Daniel started with WKMG-TV in 2000 and became the digital content manager in 2009. When he's not working on ClickOrlando.com, Daniel likes to head to the beach or find a sporting event nearby.

From chasing tornadoes and tracking the tropics, to forecasting ice storms and other dangerous weather, Troy Bridges has covered it all! Troy is an award-winning meteorologist who always prepares you for the day ahead on the News 6 Morning News.