NOAA now forecasts an ‘above normal’ hurricane season

Forecasters believe record warm Atlantic to balance out El Niño

Hurricane (Pixabay)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have increased their predictions for the number of named storms for the 2023 hurricane season.

The administration increased their percentage of an above-normal season to 60%, up from just a 30% chance from their pre-season forecast.

NOAA is now expecting 14-21 named storms, with 6-11 becoming hurricanes and 2-5 reaching major hurricane status. Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3 or stronger.

The updated ranges include the five named storms that have already developed.

August update

This is an increase from their May forecast.

An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms with seven of those becoming hurricanes. Three typically strengthen into major hurricanes.

NOAA forecasters believe that record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures will balance out El Niño, which is typically a limiting factor for tropical systems.

Sea surface temperature anomaly

It’s important to note that these forecasts do not include where the storms could go so it is important to be prepared as we head into the peak of hurricane season.

The next named storm is Emily.

Hurricane season ends Dec. 1.

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About the Author:

Jonathan Kegges joined the News 6 team in June 2019 and now covers weather on TV and all digital platforms.