The system has the potential to become a tropical storm before making landfall in the Carolinas.
The NHC calls this a potential tropical cyclone because the disturbance, which is not yet meteorologically a tropical cyclone, has the potential to become one and impact land within 48 hours.
It is important to note that all storms are cyclones and, in the tropics, they are tropical cyclones. In this part of the world, we know them as tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes based on their wind speed.
Regardless of whether the system is a non-tropical low, fully tropical or subtropical storm, impacts will be the same.
Heavy rain and tropical storm-force wind gusts will be likely from the Carolinas to the Northeast.
This will create dangerous beach conditions on the Atlantic side of Florida, but will also draw in drier, cooler air down the peninsula for the weekend.
Meantime, a second area just rolled off Africa on Wednesday, a disturbance likely to become a tropical depression by the end of the week or over the weekend.
First of all, there is a lot of time to watch the progress of the system, designated as a “red blob” by the NHC because of its odds to become better organized.
Initially, the disturbance will be slow to develop as it interacts with another disturbance out ahead of it. This will add to uncertainty in the short-term track until a well-defined low-level center develops.
An area of high pressure will steer the disturbance west.
The European and American GFS models differ in the overall steering pattern.
Both show an area of high pressure over the Central Atlantic steering the disturbance west.
The European model is highlighting a weakness between two areas of high pressure and safely lifts up and out before impacting the Caribbean islands.
The GFS has high pressure off of Canada moving in faster, allowing for the disturbance to move further west.
If this disturbance misses its first ride out north of the Caribbean, it is likely there will be another front waiting near the east coast of the U.S. to sweep it out to sea.
It’s important to note that changes will be likely with how the steering currents are currently being modeled, but these are the systems that will influence the track of the storm.
The next two named systems are Ophelia and Phillipe.
Hurricane Nigel continues to move into the North Atlantic and will not impact land.
Hurricane season runs through November.
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